The Freebies: Pitchers

The assumption in 5x5 Rotisserie is that - since strikeouts count - starters trump relievers. However, the free loot in the A.L. last year challenges that assertion.

Top 10 A.L. Free Agent Pitchers 2009

#	Player	$	AP	SW	BABG	FAAB	2008
1	Andrew Bailey	$27				$3
2	Scott Feldman	$19	R3			$2	$0
3	Michael Wuertz	$19	$2			$1	$2
4	Jason Frasor	$16	R3			$6	$2
5	Matt Guerrier	$14	R3			$1	$1
6	Craig Breslow	$12	$1			$1	$6
7	Darren O'Day	$12				$1	$0
8	Matt Palmer	$12				$8	-$3
9	Brad Bergesen	$12				$8
10	Ricky Romero	$11	$2			$15
	Average	$15	$0			$5	$1

The top of this list is utterly dominated by relief pitchers. Only Feldman cracks the first seven pitchers; everyone else started the year as a middle reliever. Bailey and Frasor picked up enough saves that I wouldn't consider them middle relievers by the end of the season, but Wuertz, Guerrier, Breslow and O'Day definitely earned their money in middle relief.

If you include Palmer as a starter (he had more appearances in relief), then only five FA starting pitchers cracked double digits; Tommy Hunter earned $10. Two other relievers (Jason Bulger and Jose Mijares) cracked $10 on the relief side. Relievers definitely had more of an impact last year in the A.L.

Was the story the same in the N.L.?

Top 10 N.L. FA Pitchers 2009

#	Player	$	AP	SW	LIBL	FAAB	2008
1	Randy Wells	$17				$1	$1
2	Nick Masset	$13					$2
3	Jason Marquis	$12	$1			$3	$6
4	Cliff Lee	$11				$86	$37
5	Ronald Belisario	$11			$1	$1
6	Todd Coffey	$10				$1	$1
7	Kiko Calero	$10	$1			$2	$0
8	Jeff Fulchino	$10				$1	-$3
9	Tyler Clippard	$9				$1	-$0
10	Trever Miller	$9	$2				$3
	Average	$11	$0		$0	$10	$5

Even more so. Wells and Marquis were the only undrafted starters to make this list who were in the N.L. from the get-go. Lee had quite an impact, but obviously wasn't available in most standard N.L. auctions on Opening Day.

After Lee, Hammel is the next freebie (at $9) and is ranked 12th among the free loot. After that you have to squint to find Brad Penny ($7, 21st) and Vicente Padilla ($6, 33rd).

In other words, of the best 33 free agent pitchers in the National League last year, 27 of them were relievers.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out what your course of action should be going forward. Good middle relievers are better than bad starting pitchers - and there are far more good middle relievers to go around. You might not find Wuertz or Masset on your first try, but you should have plenty of opportunities to keep plugging away until you get what you're looking for.

The Freebies: Hitters

Besides the best bargains from 2009, there is another class of players worth looking at: the players who weren't bought at auction.

Top 10 A.L. FA Hitters 2009

#	Player	$	AP	SW	BABG	FAAB	2008
1	Scott Podsednik	$23	$1			$15	$6
2	Adam Kennedy	$19	$1			$6	$9
3	Gordon Beckham	$13	R1		ML
4	Nolan Reimold	$13				$12
5	Ryan Raburn	$12			$1F		$3
6	Julio Borbon	$11				$2
7	Josh Anderson	$9	$7		$2		$8
8	Jayson Nix	$7	$1			$1	-$2
9	Randy Ruiz	$7				$6	$1
10	Cliff Pennington	$7	R3			$10	$2
	Average	$12	$1		$0	$5	$3

These are the 10 best hitters that all three expert leagues (CBS Sports, LABR, and Tout Wars) all elected to take a pass on last spring. Since they weren't purchased, there is no average salary column. BABG is my non-expert A.L. league. Salaries are listed if the player was auctioned or frozen (F), and the FAAB prices are also from BABG.

Compared to 2008, this is a pretty limp list. The absence of any big names coming over from the National League via trade has something to do with that. Beckham is the only big-time prospect here (though Borbon ranked 48th on John Sickels' Top 50 hitters entering last year).

Re-treads Podsednik and Kennedy are the guys who obviously jump out here: players whose careers looked like they were over - or at least entering another phase - who came through in a huge way for their owners. But Nix, Rayburn, Ruiz and even Pennington could all be viewed as re-treads as well: guys who once had higher expectations, failed, and had been all but forgotten entering this year.

The free loot in the N.L. was definitely better.

Top 10 N.L. FA Hitters 2009

#	Player	$	AP	SW	LIBL	FAAB	2008
1	Chris Coghlan	$21			ML
2	Garrett Jones	$17				$12
3	Matt Holliday	$16				$100	$38
4	Casey McGehee	$16	$1			$7	-$0
5	Angel Pagan	$16	R3		$2	$1	$3
6	Juan Uribe	$15	R3		$1		$5
7	Gerardo Parra	$14	R4		ML
8	Everth Cabrera	$14				$1
9	Craig Counsell	$11	R3			$1	-$0
10	Gary Sheffield	$10	$5			$18	$12
	Average	$15	$1		$0	$14	$6

However, Holliday was the only import to make a big splash over on the other side of the pond.

This group skews younger, but there isn't even a Beckham here who was considered a big-time prospect who arrived earlier than the market anticipated. Coghlan wasn't in Sickels' Top 50 and neither was Parra. Cabrera's young, but was a Rule V pick who many assumed the Padres would bury on the bench all season long. The older guys here - Counsell, Uribe, and Sheffield - looked like they wouldn't have full time jobs and lucked into or earned more playing time as the season played out.

The random nature of FAAB is evident in both lists. Owners aren't speculating on how good someone is, but rather betting on playing time. Podsednik got an aggressive bid because it looked like he'd play. I don't think Ruiz's owner bid $6 because he thought that Ruiz would slug 10 HR and look like the second coming of Mark McGwire in 100+ AB but because it looked like Ruiz might get a shot.

These lists are always discouraging to look at because they emphasize the random nature of our game. We like to think that we can predict the season and that our bids will accurately do so. Every year, though, there's some free loot that most definitely disabuses us of this notion. Last year was no exception.

Bargains and Busts: 2009 N.L. Pitchers

You would expect a relatively stable group of pitchers to get paid. And that's what happened in 2009.

Top Ten Salaries, N.L. Pitchers

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP/MF	SW	'08
1	Tim Lincecum	$38	$34	+4	$30	$31	$37
2	Johan Santana	$21	$34	-13	$34	$36	$34
3	Cole Hamels	$13	$30	-17	$30	$29	$32
4	Brandon Webb	-$1	$30	-31	$30	$28	$30
5	Dan Haren	$33	$27	+6	$27	$25	$30
6	Jake Peavy	$10	$26	-16	$30	$26	$24
7	Brad Lidge	$2	$24	-21	$22	$24	$23
8	Roy Oswalt	$13	$23	-10	$24	$19	$26
9	Francisco Rodriguez	$16	$23	-7	$24	$27	$26
10	Javier Vazquez	$35	$22	+13	$14	$16	$16
	Average	$18	$27	-9	$27	$26	$28

Six of the 10 pitchers who appeared here were also on 2008's list, and Rodriguez and Vazquez were in the A.L. last year. But rather than provide stability, this group got hammered last year. Only Lincecum, Haren and Vazquez were in the black and more than half the pitchers here took double-digit losses.

Since the market spent so much money on hitting, they "only" tied Patton here and beat Sports Weekly by $1. They only landed Lincecum and Vazquez outright. SW got Santana and K-Rod, while Patton got Peavy and Oswalt. Patton and the market tied on Hamels, Webb and Haren while the market tied SW on Lidge.

There's not much to say about this group of pitchers that I didn't already say in the starting pitcher write-up. There are eight repeaters here; the lack of mixing and matching with the closers doesn't make for much in the way of interesting copy. The omission of Billingsley and Gallardo does push the average price up a little bit, particularly for Patton and SW.

Top Ten Earnings, N.L. Pitchers

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP/MF	SW	'08
1	Tim Lincecum	$38	$34	+4	$30	$31	$37
2	Javier Vazquez	$35	$22	+13	$14	$16	$16
3	Dan Haren	$33	$27	+6	$27	$25	$30
4	Chris Carpenter	$33	$8	+25	$11	$11	$2
5	Adam Wainwright	$32	$18	+14	$15	$16	$17
6	Jonathan Broxton	$26	$19	+7	$16	$23	$14
7	Josh Johnson	$26	$17	+9	$17	$13	$9
8	Matt Cain	$26	$17	+9	$14	$18	$16
9	Jair Jurrjens	$26	$11	+15	$11	$8	$16
10	Ted Lilly	$25	$15	+9	$16	$15	$22
	Average	$30	$19	+11	$17	$18	$18

This isn't necessarily a surprising group, but only three of the 10 most expensive pitchers also crack the 10 best pitchers. They are all at the top of the list, though.

The $19 average salary tells us that - despite the profits here - that you had to pay to get in on this action. The 14th through 19th most expensive pitchers in the N.L. last year cost $19. You weren't paying ace money for these guys, but you were definitely paying in the hopes of getting a #2.

The market was definitely out in front on these guys, picking up Lincecum, Vazquez, and Wainwright, while tying Patton on Haren, Johnson, and Jurrjens. SW got Broxton and Cain while Patton only got Lilly outright (tying SW on Carpenter).

The market definitely had high hopes for these guys...pushing them $1 past their 2008 earnings. When you push pitchers past what they earned, your hopes are high indeed.

Unlike in the A.L., there weren't any expensive pitchers in this next group.

Top Ten Profits, N.L. Pitchers

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP/MF	SW	'08
1	Chris Carpenter	$33	$8	+25	$11	$11	$2
2	Joel Pineiro	$21	$2	+19	$1		$3
3	Randy Wolf	$24	$5	+19	$5	$1	$13
4	Ryan Franklin	$19	$2	+18	$3		$10
5	J.A. Happ	$19	$2	+17	$1	$1	$2
6	Wandy Rodriguez	$25	$9	+16	$8	$5	$15
7	Jorge de la Rosa	$15	$0	+15			$7
8	Jair Jurrjens	$26	$11	+15	$11	$8	$16
9	Ubaldo Jimenez	$24	$9	+15	$11	$6	$14
10	Rafael Soriano	$18	$4	+15	$7	$7	$3
	Average	$22	$5	+17	$6	$4	$9

But there also weren't quite as many crapshoot pitchers (average salary $0-3), so this group did manage to get paid an average of $5 per pitcher.

That's still pretty cheap, though, and about what you would expect when looking at a pitcher bargain list. For the second year in a row, this grouping took a pretty steep pay cut from what they had earned the year before. Carpenter and Soriano were the only hurlers to get raises, while Wolf, Franklin, Rodriguez, de la Rosa, Jurrjens and Jimenez all took a $5 or greater pay cut. Franklin's pay cut is understandable given the uncertainty surrounding his role; the rest of these cuts are mysterious, particularly when you consider that all of the starters except Wolf were young arms on the rise.

With so many young arms in the bargain bin, you'd expect the disappointments to be cagey veterans.

Top Ten Losses, N.L. Pitchers

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP/MF	SW	'08
1	Brandon Webb	-$1	$30	-31	$30	$28	$30
2	Brad Lidge	$2	$24	-21	$22	$24	$23
3	Cole Hamels	$13	$30	-17	$30	$29	$32
4	Oliver Perez	-$6	$10	-17	$7	$8	$13
5	Jake Peavy	$10	$26	-16	$30	$26	$24
6	Brett Myers	$3	$17	-15	$11	$7	$11
7	Edinson Volquez	$4	$19	-15	$20	$14	$25
8	Derek Lowe	$5	$19	-13	$18	$12	$26
9	Johan Santana	$21	$34	-13	$34	$36	$34
10	Manny Parra	-$7	$6	-13	$7	$5	$8
	Average	$4	$21	-17	$21	$19	$23

And most of these pitchers are just that.

As I always say, if you bought one of these pitchers, your team probably crashed and burned last year.

The market and Patton seemed to know that there was a bad moon rising, and Sports Weekly really seemed to be wary of these pitchers. This list is dominated by pitchers from the 10 Most Expensive list, so it shouldn't be a surprise to see the market dominate again. Of the non-repeaters, the market snatches up Perez, Myers and Lowe, while Patton gets Volquez and Parra.

This group of pitchers cost $6 more per pitcher than their A.L. counterparts. Of course, they earned $11 more per pitcher than the A.L. grouping in 2008, so you would have expected them to cost more.

The biggest difference between these guys and the bums over in the A.L. is that these pitchers almost all returned something. Parra, Perez and Webb all finished in the red; everyone else provided a positive contribution.

I know, I know...that doesn't make paying $30 for Hamels go down any easier. But if you had to choose between Hamels and Webb, you'd obviously choose Webb.

It will be interesting to see how well last year's most expensive arms do this year. Peavy and Vazquez are off to the A.L., but the bets on Hamels, Santana, and Webb should be interesting to see. There could be some rare opportunities for bargains or - in keeper leagues - the chance to lock up an ace at a non-ace price for 2-3 years.

Or you could just wind up getting burned.

Bargains and Busts: 2009 A.L. Pitchers

Typically, 5x5 values starting pitchers far more than it does closers. If that's the case, why the heck did this happen?

Top 10 Salaries, A.L. Pitchers

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP/MF	SW	'08
1	CC Sabathia	$34	$31	+3	$32	$28	$40
2	Jon Papelbon	$22	$29	-7	$26	$29	$26
3	Roy Halladay	$37	$28	+9	$33	$30	$40
4	Joe Nathan	$28	$26	+1	$27	$27	$25
5	Joakim Soria	$19	$26	-7	$23	$24	$26
6	Mariano Rivera	$27	$25	+2	$27	$27	$31
7	Josh Beckett	$28	$23	+5	$23	$24	$20
8	James Shields	$18	$23	-5	$24	$18	$25
9	Bobby Jenks	$14	$22	-8	$23	$19	$17
10	Brian Fuentes	$17	$21	-5	$15	$20	$21
	Average	$24	$26	-1	$25	$25	$27

Six closers cracked the 10 most expensive A.L. pitchers last year, compared to four in 2008. Papelbon, Nathan, and Rivera repeat on this list, while Soria, Jenks and Fuentes join them.

There isn't necessarily an increased level of confidence in the closers, but more of a lack of faith in any of the starters - particularly at the prices they were paid in '08. Beckett and Shields wouldn't have even cracked the Top 10 that year; the market seems to be saying in CC and Halladay we trust, all others must prove their mettle.

As it turned out, this was a pretty solid group of pitchers. The starters, who we expect to be less reliable than the closers, were more reliable, turning a $12 total profit between the four of them. The relievers were the ones who brought this group down; only Nathan and Rivera turned a profit...and barely at that.

But this group is a yawner. Not a single pitcher here gained or lost more than $10. This sounds banal, but when you consider how wildly pitcher earnings tend to fluctuate, this is actually no mean feat.

I'm not minimizing the difference between Halladay's $9 profit and Shields' $5 loss. Clearly, these are two different pitchers with two varying sets of expectations and two sets of results. However, within the framework of Halladay and Shields' respective expectations, it's likely that Shields' owner was probably OK with - if not excited about - Shields' 2009 campaign.

Of course, the best pitchers weren't totally predictable.

Top 10 Earnings, A.L. Pitchers

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP/MF	SW	'08
1	Zack Greinke	$44	$21	+23	$24	$15	$22
2	Felix Hernandez	$40	$21	+20	$17	$20	$17
3	Roy Halladay	$37	$28	+9	$33	$30	$40
4	Justin Verlander	$37	$15	+22	$18	$18	$10
5	CC Sabathia	$34	$31	+3	$32	$28	$40
6	Jon Lester	$30	$16	+13	$26	$21	$24
7	Josh Beckett	$28	$23	+5	$23	$24	$20
8	Joe Nathan	$28	$26	+1	$27	$27	$25
9	Andrew Bailey	$27
10	Mariano Rivera	$27	$25	+2	$27	$27	$31
	Average	$33	$23	+11	$25	$23	$25

But with the exception of Bailey - who no one saw coming - these guys weren't surprises.

The cheapest pitcher on this list is Verlander, who was the 30th most expensive pitcher in the A.L. Greinke and Hernandez were the 12th and 13th most expensive pitchers; if just one owner in any of the expert leagues had shown a little more enthusiasm, either pitcher could have cracked the Top 10 in salary.

Only Bailey's earnings this year and last year are calculated into the averages; neither the market nor the touts get dinged for Bailey since they didn't even step into the batter's box. But even if I did ding them, these 10 pitchers still would have cost $21 per pitcher.

In other words, none of your bottom feeding pitchers purchased at auction cracked through here.

You can find plenty of bottom feeders on this next chart, of course.

Top 10 Profits, A.L. Pitchers

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP/MF	SW	'08
1	Zack Greinke	$44	$21	+23	$24	$15	$22
2	Justin Verlander	$37	$15	+22	$18	$18	$10
3	David Aardsma	$22	$1	+21			-$0
4	Felix Hernandez	$40	$21	+20	$17	$20	$17
5	Edwin Jackson	$23	$4	+19	$4		$7
6	Jarrod Washburn	$17	$0	+17	$2		$3
7	Kevin Millwood	$18	$1	+17	$4	$3	$2
8	Jeff Niemann	$16	$1	+16	$2		$1
9	J.P. Howell	$17	$2	+15	$3	$2	$17
10	Brett Anderson	$16	$1	+15	$6
	Average	$25	$7	+19	$8	$6	$8

Once again, though, the bad news for owners looking to benefit in the crapshoot is that three of 2009's best pitchers were also 2009's most profitable.

You can't underestimate how many awesome bargains there were in the $1 bargain bin. When I went back and looked, the victories here in the endgame were incredible.

Twenty-five pitchers went for an average salary of $1. These 25 pitchers earned a total of $153, or $6.12 per pitcher. Nine of these pitchers earned in double digits.

Well, maybe it's not incredible at all. In 2008, the 23 $1 pitchers actually outdid that, earning $170 total, or $7.39 per pitcher. The difference was that only six pitchers cracked $10; a lot of 2008's earning power came from Cliff Lee's amazing season.

Given all of the success at the top and bottom of the earnings spectrum, you'd kind of expect your failures to be in the middle. But they aren't.

Top 10 Losses, A.L. Pitchers

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP/MF	SW	'08
1	B.J. Ryan	-$1	$21	-22	$11	$23	$22
2	Daisuke Matsuzaka	-$2	$19	-20	$19	$17	$24
3	Francisco Liriano	$1	$20	-19	$24	$22	$6
4	Chien-Ming Wang	-$8	$11	-19	$19	$12	$8
5	Joey Devine		$18	-18	$3	$12	$14
6	Fausto Carmona	-$6	$9	-15	$14	$7	-$1
7	Chris Ray	-$5	$9	-15	$7	$6
8	Andy Sonnanstine	-$4	$10	-14	$11	$7	$14
9	Gil Meche	$2	$16	-13	$11	$9	$19
10	Joba Chamberlain	$7	$19	-12	$16	$20	$14
	Average	-$2	$15	-17	$14	$14	$12

In 5x5, the average pitcher should earn $9.44.

So four of these pitchers - Carmona, Ray, Sonnanstine, and Wang - certainly can be considered middle of the road in terms of salary. The rest of these guys, though, fall in the $16-21 group, which is most certainly not cheap. Ryan, in fact, was the 11th most expensive pitcher in the league last year.

These guys look worse than their 2008 counterparts, but that's just because last year's chart was 4x4. If I replace it with 5x5...

Top Losses A.L. Pitchers 2008

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-
1	Erik Bedard	$9	$30	-21
2	Fausto Carmona	-$1	$19	-20
3	Justin Verlander	$10	$28	-18
4	Clay Buchholz	-$5	$12	-17
5	J.J. Putz	$9	$26	-17
6	Dontrelle Willis	-$6	$10	-16
7	CC Sabathia	$13	$28	-15
8	Phil Hughes	-$3	$12	-15
9	Ian Kennedy	-$6	$7	-13
10	Joe Borowski	$0	$13	-13
	Average	$2	$19	-17

...these guys lost the same amount of our Monopoly money.

You have to squint to see it, but the 2008 losers were definitely more productive. Bedard, Putz, Sabathia and Verlander all returned $9 or more of value. That's still a big hit - particularly when you spent big bucks on those guys - but with last year's crop, only Joba returned anything worth mentioning. Six of the 10 losers in '09 were truly losers, with their Roto value in the red, while Meche at $2 was the second best pitcher in this group.

It's too early to say whether or not 2009 truly heralded the return of the ace in the A.L. With Halladay gone to the N.L., there will once again be a void to fill, but it appears that Greinke and Felix should both avoid the injury/ineffectiveness that plagued Bedard and Verlander in '08. I anticipate prices will go up in expert auctions next year for the best pitchers. Whether or not this new crop of aces is worth it is why we play the season.

Bargains and Busts: 2009 N.L. Hitters

It's possible that Rotisserie League Baseball is slowly drifting back toward Stage One. Just like in the American League, these hitters are getting paid more than they can possibly earn, particularly in 5x5.

Top 10 Salaries, N.L. Hitters

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
1	Hanley Ramirez	$41	$46	-5	$43	$41	$39
2	David Wright	$28	$45	-17	$35	$39	$38
3	Jose Reyes	$7	$44	-37	$38	$40	$42
4	Albert Pujols	$45	$42	+3	$41	$37	$43
5	Ryan Braun	$40	$41	-1	$30	$35	$33
6	Jimmy Rollins	$26	$38	-12	$32	$33	$31
7	Ryan Howard	$34	$36	-2	$29	$30	$30
8	Carlos Beltran	$18	$35	-17	$30	$30	$35
9	Chase Utley	$33	$35	-3	$29	$31	$33
10	Matt Kemp	$37	$35	+2	$31	$26	$33
	Average	$31	$40	-9	$34	$34	$36

Yet with or without the benefit of hindsight, it was more prudent to pay these players more (how much more prudent is certainly subject to debate). They earned $36 per player in 2008, compared to a "mere" $32 per player in the A.L. They, too, failed to earn what they were paid but - with $31 average earnings - came much closer to earning their keep than their weaker A.L. counterparts.

Once again, Patton and Sports Weekly were timid little doves when it came to these players. A $2 average pay cut for a $36 group of earners? A $4 raise per player might not have been prudent, but a $2 pay cut seems kind of harsh the other way. Half of the 10 most expensive players in the National League last year earned more than they did in 2008, while Utley broke even.

A minor phenomenon is occurring here that I suspect neither the touts nor the market are noticing. League differences - which had all but disappeared for a while thanks to interleague play - are reasserting themselves again. Thirteen National League players cracked $30 or more in 2009, while only six A.L. players pulled off the same feat.

Pujols' same raw line in the American League would be worth $41, not $45. Obviously, this works in both directions; Jacoby Ellsbury's $36 season in the A.L. would have been worth $41 if he put up those same stats in the National League. The average A.L. hitter put up better numbers than the average N.L. hitter did. The result is that it makes sense to pay more in the N.L. for the best hitters...since the hitters you buy in the middle of the pack won't accrue as much stats.

Not only were the best hitters better, they were also more predictable in the N.L. than they were in the A.L.

Top 10 Earnings, N.L. Hitters

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
1	Albert Pujols	$45	$42	+3	$41	$37	$43
2	Hanley Ramirez	$41	$46	-5	$43	$41	$39
3	Ryan Braun	$40	$41	-1	$30	$35	$33
4	Matt Kemp	$37	$35	+2	$31	$26	$33
5	Prince Fielder	$35	$31	+4	$25	$27	$26
6	Ryan Howard	$34	$36	-2	$29	$30	$30
7	Mark Reynolds	$33	$14	+19	$14	$15	$20
8	Troy Tulowitzki	$33	$21	+12	$20	$21	$7
9	Michael Bourn	$33	$9	+24	$16	$14	$16
10	Chase Utley	$33	$35	-3	$29	$31	$33
	Average	$36	$31	+5	$28	$28	$28

Six out of the 10 most expensive hitters also were the best hitters in the National League. The market paid slightly too much for four of these hitters (it only turned a tiny profit on Pujols and Kemp, while losing money on Ramirez, Braun, Howard, and Utley), but even if they were a dollar or two off, they were better off chasing and pushing for stats.

Since there's so much duplication, Sports Weekly and Patton are still behind on these hitters. Patton does get Bourn, while Sports Weekly gets Reynolds and ties the market on Tulo...but this is obviously going to be a big win for the market. If the best hitters are also the most expensive ones, the winner here is whoever decides to pay. Patton and SW are a little bit closer here, but clearly not close enough.

If Patton and SW aren't buying the best hitters, they had better be snatching up some of the bigger surprises.

Top 10 Profits, N.L. Hitters

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
1	Michael Bourn	$33	$9	+24	$16	$14	$16
2	Nyjer Morgan	$27	$4	+24	$5	$4	$6
3	Mark Reynolds	$33	$14	+19	$14	$15	$20
4	Andrew McCutchen	$22	$3	+19	R1	$1
5	Matt Diaz	$20	$2	+18	$5	$1	$3
6	Dexter Fowler	$17	$3	+14	$5		-$1
7	Todd Helton	$24	$10	+14	$14	$10	$5
8	Carlos Gonzalez	$16	$2	+14	$5	$1	$4
8	Martin Prado	$16	$2	+14	$3	$2	$9
10	Pablo Sandoval	$29	$16	+14	$14	$12	$7
	Average	$24	$6	+17	$8	$6	$7

This is where Patton seems to shine. He gets Bourn, Morgan, Diaz, Fowler, Helton, Gonzalez and Prado. The market gets McCutcheon and Sandoval, while SW is left with only Reynolds.

Just like in the A.L., this is a pretty surprising group. But 2008 shows that it was not only a surprising group but also one that came from almost completely out of nowhere. Bourn, Prado, and Reynolds are the only players here to get significant pay cuts.

A lot of these players are rookies or near-rookies whose playing time was impossible or next to impossible to predict in March when all of the expert league prices were already in the books. In keeper leagues that would allow you to auction minor leaguers, McCutcheon surely would have sold for more than $3. The rookies give this group an entirely different flavor.

Since this group is dominated by rookies, you would almost expect the next group to be dominated by veterans. And it is.

Top 10 Losses, N.L. Hitters

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
1	Jose Reyes	$7	$44	-37	$38	$40	$42
2	Geovany Soto	$4	$23	-19	$23	$18	$20
3	Alfonso Soriano	$14	$33	-19	$27	$30	$28
4	Conor Jackson	$1	$20	-18	$19	$17	$22
5	Garrett Atkins	$5	$22	-17	$22	$22	$22
6	Carlos Beltran	$18	$35	-17	$30	$30	$35
7	David Wright	$28	$45	-17	$35	$39	$38
8	Edwin Encarnacion	$1	$18	-16	$15	$16	$14
9	Manny Ramirez	$16	$31	-14	$27	$30	$39
10	Chris Young	$9	$23	-14	$19	$20	$19
	Average	$10	$29	-19	$26	$26	$28

Reyes probably sets some kind of record for the biggest loss ever for a hitter. But while a $37 loss is unfathomable, these are still some pretty big hits to take across the board.

Sadly for the market, it's ahead of the touts on this group of hitters as well. Patton and SW don't get anyone outright; they both tie the market on Atkins, while Patton ties on Soto. The market easily gets everyone else.

This is the drawback to pushing and pushing on the biggest names. On the whole, it is a successful strategy. The downside is if you wind up with Reyes or Beltran instead of Howard or Braun. In theory, pushing the best players to par or past it is a solid play. In practice, you have $260 to spend and it is unlikely you're going to wind up with more than two hitters that cost more than $33, and more often than not you'll get only one. Choose correctly and you've got a nice value center to build your team around. Choose wrong and you've got Jose Reyes.

Bargains and Busts: 2009 A.L. Hitters

We either paid too much for the 10 most expensive American League hitters or they were really disappointing.

Top 10 Salaries, A.L. Hitters

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008 (4x4)
1	Grady Sizemore	$15	$41	-27	$38	$32	$40
2	Miguel Cabrera	$31	$38	-8	$30	$35	$33
3	Mark Teixeira	$28	$38	-10	$29	$33	$33
4	Carl Crawford	$36	$36	0	$35	$33	$21
5	Ian Kinsler	$26	$36	-10	$34	$35	$34
6	Josh Hamilton	$11	$35	-24	$30	$29	$38
7	B.J. Upton	$19	$35	-15	$34	$32	$31
8	Dustin Pedroia	$25	$34	-9	$27	$27	$36
9	Nick Markakis	$22	$33	-11	$30	$30	$28
10	Evan Longoria	$26	$33	-7	$26	$24	$24
	Average	$24	$36	-12	$31	$31	$32

The market paid the same amount per hitter for the comparable 2008 chart, but got back $7 more per hitter than they did from this group. The 4x4/5x5 price difference explains some of that away, but not a $7 gap. These hitters were either bad or the market chased them too far.

The touts (Alex Patton and Sports Weekly) prices seem to agree that the market went way too far. They fell $5 short per hitter on this group. While that doesn't sound like a lot, it is when you consider that last your both touts were only $2 short per hitter, not $5.

2008 agrees as well. In 2008, the 10 most expensive hitters earned $36 per hitter and cost $36 per hitter. This year they got a $4 raise per hitter.

Part of the disappointment stems from the fact that the average American League hitter was pretty good this year. This results in a chain reaction that suppresses earnings. Each HR, RBI, SB and run is worth a little less since they are slightly more plentiful and it's harder to translate stats into dollars. In fact, only six hitters in the A.L. in 2009 cracked the $30 barrier.

Top 10 Earnings, A.L. Hitters

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008 (4x4)
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	$36	$31	+6	$29	$29	$33
2	Carl Crawford	$36	$36	0	$35	$33	$21
3	Derek Jeter	$34	$23	+11	$18	$23	$22
4	Joe Mauer	$32	$20	+13	$12	$25	$23
5	Ichiro Suzuki	$31	$30	+1	$30	$27	$35
6	Miguel Cabrera	$31	$38	-8	$30	$35	$33
7	Bobby Abreu	$28	$23	+6	$24	$27	$34
8	Chone Figgins	$28	$23	+5	$22	$20	$19
9	Jason Bartlett	$28	$12	+17	$8	$11	$16
10	Mark Teixiera	$28	$38	-10	$29	$33	$33
	Average	$31	$27	+4	$24	$26	$27

In some ways, the salary column is the truest indicator of how predictable these hitters are. The higher the average salary, the more predictable the hitters. Even though the market chased the 10 most expensive hitters all the way to $36, a $27 average salary for the best hitters isn't cheap. Eight of the 10 hitters here cost $23 or more; only 31 hitters in the American League cracked that barrier last year. Getting $34 of production out of Jeter is certainly a surprise, in other words, but it isn't revelatory.

This group of hitters is pretty vanilla. Bartlett is the only hitter who cost less than $20; owners who bought these players may not have expected to buy one of the 10 best players in every instance, but they certainly were expecting some pretty solid production. They also weren't chasing this group of 10 hitters quite so much as the 10 most expensive hitters; the market and 2008 is a nearly perfect match.

Patton is the only one who lags behind here. The market is the most aggressive pricer here, but even Sports Weekly gets in on the act, tying the market on Jeter and winning the hypothetical bidding war on Mauer and Abreu. Patton can only manage to muster a tie on Ichiro with the market; he misses out on every other player.

The funny thing is that Patton's relative pessimism might be dead on. His dour $30 price almost hits Cabrera on the nose, as does his $29 price on Teixeira. His bid on Longoria ($26) is dead on, and in hindsight may have been somewhat more sensible than the $33 the market shelled out for a 24-year-old with 122 Major League games under his belt entering last year.

I've touched upon this in some of the individual positional profiles, but Patton's bets are sensible for hitters with little or no speed. Thirty-eight dollars for Cabrera and Teixeira is not only pushing the envelope, it is beyond what a hitter who cannot run will possibly earn. As I mentioned in the first base profiles, it's OK to go a couple of bucks higher to pay for production, but you get to the point where you're doing nothing but fighting a losing battle.

The most surprising hitters last year were definitely more surprising than their 2008 counterparts.

Top 10 Profits, A.L. Hitters

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008 (4x4)
1	Ben Zobrist	$27	$2	+25	$1	$1	$8
2	Kendry Morales	$27	$8	+19	$8	$10	$1
3	Raj Davis	$23	$6	+17	$4		$14
4	Jason Bartlett	$28	$12	+17	$8	$11	$16
5	Aaron Hill	$27	$11	+16	$11	$13	$4
6	Marlon Byrd	$19	$4	+15	$6	$5	$16
7	Marco Scutaro	$19	$4	+15	$5	$4	$12
8	Franklin Gutierrez	$21	$6	+14	$11	$11	$9
9	Maicer Izturis	$18	$3	+14	$2	$3	$10
10	Michael Cuddyer	$22	$8	+14	$5	$12	$6
	Average	$23	$6	+17	$6	$7	$10

Only Bartlett and Hill even cracked double-digits in salary, while Zobrist, Byrd, Scutaro and Izturis went for $4 or less.

Sports Weekly, to their credit, is a little less surprised...maybe this is what they were saving their money for. They manage go to $10 or more on half of these players. As a result, they land Morales, Hill and Cuddyer, while tying Patton on Gutierrez and the market on Izturis. Patton ekes out wins on Byrd and Scoot, while the market gets Zobrist, Davis and Bartlett.

But no one had a lot of faith in this group. The market gave them a $4 per player pay cut from what they earned last year. While some of these cuts are due to job uncertainty, it is evident that the relatively high salaries that the big boys are getting have an impact here. Scutaro and Gutierrez were both slated to start but garnered no respect. No one could have or should expected Bartlett to be the 9th best hitter in the American League last year, but a $4 pay cut for a hitter at a weak position who missed part of the 2008 campaign was curious.

Most of these players didn't (or shouldn't) have come out of nowhere. But the market treated them like they did.

And - as I've said again and again - that's because of the money they kept insisting at the top of the spectrum.

Top 10 Losses, A.L. Hitters

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008 (4x4)
1	Grady Sizemore	$15	$41	-27	$38	$32	$40
2	Josh Hamilton	$11	$35	-24	$30	$29	$38
3	Chris Davis	$9	$27	-18	$21	$20	$15
4	Carlos Quentin	$10	$28	-18	$24	$24	$31
5	Mike Aviles	-$1	$17	-18	$12	$15	$20
6	Xavier Nady	$1	$17	-17	$17	$12	$26
7	Alex Gordon	$4	$21	-17	$18	$15	$15
8	Matt Holliday	$14	$30	-16	$30	$29	$38
9	B.J. Upton	$19	$35	-15	$34	$32	$31
10	Vladimir Guerrero	$14	$28	-14	$27	$25	$28
	Average	$10	$28	-18	$25	$23	$28

These guys cost $3 more per player than the same group of losers in 2008. That year, David Ortiz was the only hitter to crack $30 in salary. Last year, Sizemore, Hamilton, Upton and Holliday all broke $30. It's logical; if the market pushed weaker hitters to the top of the salary chart, then you're going to see a few of those $30+ hitters fall into this group.

On the other hand, you were more likely to get something back for your trouble here. Gordon, Nady, and Aviles all tanked, but 2008 saw five hitters - Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Jorge Posada, Aaron Hill, and Josh Fields - earn $5 or less. Getting $15 of stats out of Sizemore isn't a victory, but it's better than getting $1 for your $17 stab at Nady.

Sports Weekly once again was ahead of the market and Patton here in the other direction. Their $23 average salary was the right call across the board (though still off the market by $13 per player). They wouldn't have landed any of these players; their recommendation clearly was to stay away. Patton almost made the same recommendation, tying the market on Holliday and Nady.

If there's a lesson tied to all this spending, it's that you're definitely better off playing the Stage Three game. Wait for players in the middle and then hope for bargains at the end. There's a ceiling to what players can earn. If owners are going to go far enough past that ceiling, the power you have is in aiming for value in the middle and in the endgame.

2009 A.L. Relievers

For the last few years, it seems that the closers in the American League return more bang for the buck than their counterparts in the National League. Last year, though, the A.L. closers finally took it on the chin a little bit.

Ten Most Expensive A.L. Relievers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	MF	SW	'08
1	Jon Papelbon	$22	$29	-7	$26	$29	$26
2	Joe Nathan	$28	$26	+1	$27	$27	$25
3	Joakim Soria	$19	$26	-7	$23	$24	$26
4	Mariano Rivera	$27	$25	+2	$27	$27	$31
5	Bobby Jenks	$14	$22	-8	$23	$19	$17
6	Brian Fuentes	$17	$21	-5	$15	$20	$18
7	B.J. Ryan	-$1	$21	-22	$11	$23	$22
8	Kerry Wood	$11	$19	-8	$21	$18	$16
9	Joey Devine		$18	-18	$3	$12	$14
10	Frank Francisco	$14	$15	-1	$13	$14	$10
	Average	$15	$22	-7	$19	$21	$21

Only Nathan, Rivera and Andrew Bailey (an un-auctioned free agent who doesn't appear here as a result) cracked the $25 barrier last year in 5x5. Five relievers - Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Soria, Papelbon, and Nathan - pulled it off in 2008.

As is typical, the market reacted to 2008 by paying for what it thought would be a reliable commodity in 2009, only to find itself disappointed more often than not. Almost all of these guys got the saves they were paid to get, but when you pay $20+ for a closer in 5x5, you're looking for whiffs and quality ERA/WHIP as well.

You can't argue too much with the prices for the top four guys; it's the prices from Jenks through Devine that make you scratch your head a little bit. Devine's average salary was generated before he was injured (or before the extent of his injury was known), but everyone else got a raise despite the fact that they weren't necessarily expected to be studs. A rising tide lifts all boats, I suppose, but the market would have been better off hanging back on these guys.

Fenger seemed to agree with that assumption and held back on some of the weaker options. He had inside information on Devine (his prices are the last ones to go to bed), but his prices on Fuentes and Ryan were pretty conservative. He did grab Jenks and Wood and his share of Rivera and Nathan. Sports Weekly agreed with my approach, tying the market on Papelbon and Fenger on Rivera and Nathan; among the relievers in the second tier, they only grabbed Ryan. The market got Soria, Fuentes, Devine and Francisco outright.

If pushing the non-elite relievers past $20 was a bad idea, then maybe waiting for a bottom-tier closer or CIW was a good idea.

Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive A.L. Relievers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	MF	SW	'08
11	Brandon Lyon	$13	$11	+3	$9	$10	$9
12	Brandon Morrow	$4	$10	-6	$13	$10	$11
13	Chris Ray	-$5	$9	-15	$7	$6
14	George Sherrill	$11	$9	+2	$12	$10	$11
15	Troy Percival	$1	$9	-8	$12	$8	$11
16	Brad Ziegler	$7	$7	-0	$14	$9	$13
17	Grant Balfour	$7	$7	-0	$7	$8	$16
18	Dan Wheeler	$11	$6	+5	$5	$5	$15
19	Jose Arredondo	$0	$5	-5	$7	$6	$15
20	Phil Hughes	$17	$4	+13	R2	$1	-$3
	Average	$7	$8	-1	$10	$7	$10

Or maybe not.

Sherrill would have worked out if he had stayed with the Orioles, but everyone else on this list failed as a closer or failed to turn into one. I've been poring over the stats all winter, and I guessed incorrectly which of these relievers after Sherrill had the most saves (Brad Ziegler, with seven).

This chart is quite the argument against closer-in-waitings/handcuffs. If you bought Ray at $9 to tie him to Sherrill, you went from a $2 profit for $9 to a $12 loss for $18. Picking up Wheeler and Balfour if you didn't trust Percival certainly took away most of the sting, but if you went this route you only got 12 saves for your $22.

It's nice that Lyon turned a profit for his owners, but you're not looking for a tiny profit here...you're looking for saves.

Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive A.L. Relievers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	MF	SW	'08
21	Justin Masterson	$7	$4	+3	$6	$2	$9
22	Jeremy Bonderman	-$3	$4	-7	$1	$5	$2
23	Scot Shields	-$1	$4	-4	$6	$1	$10
24	Juan Cruz	$1	$3	-2	$4	$1	$9
25	Rafael Perez	-$4	$3	-7	$5	$3	$11
26	Fernando Rodney	$13	$3	+10	$5	$3	$4
27	Matt Thornton	$16	$2	+13	$5	$1	$13
28	Jeremy Accardo	$2	$2	-1	$1		$0
29	J.P. Howell	$17	$2	+15	$3	$2	$17
30	Hideki Okajima	$9	$2	+7	$5	$2	$10
	Average	$6	$3	+3	$4	$2	$9

The next tier was a slightly better place to go trolling for saves. Rodney and Howell were much better plays than many of the names in the first two charts, even though Rodney hurt your ERA/WHIP. There were certainly some swings and misses here (Shields, Cruz, Perez), but when you're paying $2-4, the swings and misses aren't quite so painful.

Fenger went from conservative in the first chart to somewhat liberal in the next two. He gets Morrow, Sherrill, Percival, Ziegler, Arredondo, Masterson, Shields, Cruz, Perez, Rodney, Thornton, Howell, and Okajima. There's something to be said for paying an extra buck or two for a middle reliever over a lousy starter, but it seems to me like overkill to be aggressive on what is a very fungible and unpredictable commodity.

Especially when your fourth best reliever in the American League sits on the following chart.

Next Ten (31-40) Most Expensive A.L. Relievers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	MF	SW	'08
31	Sean Gallagher	-$2	$2	-4	$6	$4	$2
32	Jensen Lewis	$4	$2	+3	$1	$2	$6
33	Miguel Batista	$4	$2	+3	$2	$5	-$8
34	Casey Janssen	-$2	$2	-3		$1
35	David Aardsma	$22	$1	+21			-$0
36	Mark Lowe	$10	$1	+8	$6	$2	-$2
37	Manny Delcarmen	$2	$1	+1	$5	$2	$9
38	Joel Zumaya	$1	$1	0	$5	$4	-$0
39	Pat Neshek		$1	-1			$1
40	Tyler Walker		$1	-1	R3	$4	$5
	Average	$4	$1	+3	$3	$2	$1

You're left with Aardsma, Lowe, and a bunch of uninspiring relievers, including two who didn't even throw a pitch in '09. The entire non-Morrow Mariners bullpen seems to be in this bracket. SW is particularly bullish about Batista and Lowe in mid-March, while Fenger seems hopped up on Lowe. Both touts avodied Aardsma, and two of three expert leagues passed entirely; only Tout Wars - with their $4 bid - thought he'd be worth something last year.

Fenger and SW are much more aggressive here...but only with the pitchers that they really, really like. Fenger has four $5+ bids, while SW has four bids at $4 or more. While I certainly like the idea of spending your money in the endgame, a lot of these pitchers seem interchangeable. The market certainly seems to think so, and if your own league is anything like the market, these bids are simply needlessly aggressive.

2009 N.L. Relievers

This is the first year I'm doing relief prices using 5x5 values as opposed to 4x4, so I expected the variance on prices to be radical.

But not this radical.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Relievers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	MF	SW	'08
1	Brad Lidge	$2	$24	-21	$24	$22	$23
2	Francisco Rodriguez	$16	$23	-7	$24	$27	$26
3	Carlos Marmol	$10	$20	-10	$10	$24	$18
4	Jonathan Broxton	$26	$19	+7	$16	$23	$14
5	Jose Valverde	$16	$19	-3	$21	$21	$23
6	Matt Capps	$6	$17	-11	$19	$21	$14
7	Chad Qualls	$12	$16	-4	$13	$13	$14
8	Francisco Cordero	$18	$15	+3	$20	$20	$17
9	Heath Bell	$23	$15	+8	$15	$19	$10
10	Brian Wilson	$21	$14	+7	$12	$16	$15
	Average	$15	$18	-3	$17	$21	$17

Thirty-dollar closers go the way of the dinosaur in 5x5. Seven closers cracked the $30 barrier in 2009 in 4x4, while only Broxton could get past $25 in 5x5. The market intuits this, and cheats these guys as much as it can.

Yet even with this relative penny pinching, it's not enough. The market falls $3 short on these players despite the relatively modest price tag. Sports Weekly is a little more conservative than it was last year yet still sets the pace for these pitchers. In a three-way battle with Patton and the market, it gets everyone or a share of everyone except for Lidge and Qualls. Mike Fenger - subbing ably for Alex Patton's 4x4 prices with his own 5x5 spin - only gets a piece of Lidge and Valverde.

As usual, the prices here are more about how well these pitchers are expected to do as closers and how many saves they'll accrue. Lidge and K-Rod are the only ones here who are treated as relative studs, while Marmol sees his price dip from the CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars auctions but the Tout Warriors can still only go as low as $16 in late March.

If you avoid the top closers, the hope in 5x5 is that you'll be able to cheap out and spend $10-12 on a second tier guy, but the results of that strategy in '09 were mixed.

Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive N.L. Relievers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	MF	SW	'08
11	Mike Gonzalez	$15	$13	+1	$12	$17	$7
12	Trevor Hoffman	$21	$13	+8	$13	$15	$15
13	Joel Hanrahan	$1	$12	-11	$9	$11	$11
14	Matt Lindstrom	$2	$12	-9	$11	$15	$6
15	Huston Street	$21	$10	+11	$10	$18	$15
16	Chris Perez	$2	$9	-7	R1	$8	$7
17	J.J. Putz	-$0	$7	-8	$5	$5	$9
18	Manny Corpas	-$1	$7	-8	$8	$9	$3
19	Jason Motte	$3	$6	-3	$10	$9	$3
20	Sean Marshall	$3	$5	-2	$5	$2	$6
	Average	$7	$9	-3	$8	$11	$8

Hoffman and Street paid dividends, Gonzalez paid modest dividends, and everyone else fell flat.

Even the anticipated stud set-ups/closers in waiting were of virtually no help. Putz and Corpas failed to offer any help at all. Tout Wars flipped the prices on Motte and Perez when it became apparent that Perez was not the guy, but neither one of them wound up being the guy in St. Louis.

As always, I like the plays on Hoffman and Street. Hoffman didn't get the strikeouts, but he got the saves and his qualitatives were stellar as they almost always are.

Sports Weekly is at long last spending their money in the pen. They "buy" Gonzalez, Hoffman, Lindstrom, and Street and then handcuff Street to Corpas. The market gets Hanrahan, Perez, Putz and half of Marshall. Fenger is left with only his half of Marshall and Motte.

The bargains/saves eventually have to come and they do below.

Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive N.L. Relievers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	MF	SW	'08
21	Kevin Gregg	$11	$5	+6	$10	$2	$17
22	Hong-Chih Kuo	$4	$5	-1	$6	$9	$16
23	Rafael Soriano	$18	$4	+15	$7	$7	$3
24	Carlos Villanueva	$2	$4	-1	$9	$7	$8
25	Jon Rauch	$3	$3	-0	$6	$4	$12
26	Ryan Madson	$12	$2	+10	$3	$6	$10
27	Leo Nunez	$13	$2	+11	$2	$4	$6
28	James McDonald	$4	$2	+2		$3	$1
29	Tony Pena	$3	$2	+1	$4	$4	$5
30	Cla Meredith	$1	$2	-1	$1		$2
	Average	$7	$3	+4	$5	$5	$8

The biggest difference from 5x5 to 4x4 is that there almost always have to be some saves attached to a middle relief candidate to make him valuable. Madson put up some solid qualitatives, but if he hadn't been saving some games there in the second half, his earnings would have been a little more modest.

The other side of that coin is that these guys also aren't going to lose all that much money. Having Villanueva only earn $2 is certainly disappointing, but he lost $2 in 5x5. Filling out the back of your staff with one or two of these guys at $2-3 isn't a bad idea.

It's a slightly better idea than waiting for the very end.

Next Ten (31-40) Most Expensive N.L. Relievers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	MF	SW	'08
31	Ryan Franklin	$19	$2	+18	$3		$10
32	Aaron Heilman	$5	$2	+3	$4	$1	$2
33	Jorge Campillo	$0	$2	-2	$2		$13
34	Bob Howry	$6	$1	+5		$3	$4
35	Cory Wade	$1	$1	-1	$3	$1	$12
36	Josh Kinney	-$3	$1	-5			$2
37	Jeff Samardzija	-$4	$1	-5	$4		$3
38	Jeremy Affeldt	$9	$1	+8	$1		$7
39	Sergio Romo	$6	$1	+5	$3		$9
40	Jared Burton	$1	$1	0	$2	$1	$7
	Average	$4	$1	+3	$2	$1	$7

Franklin is the lottery ticket that wins here. Everyone else provides a little bit of value except for Kinney and Campillo, but this is hardly an inspiring group.

Notice that the 2008 column for the second, third and fourth groups of pitchers are nearly identical. Despite the presence of two 30+ save closers in the 11-20 bracket, their earnings are almost identical with the 21-30 bracket. I've never been a fan of paying good money for shaky closers or - worse - CIWs, and the charts this year seem to reinforce that.

However, it's not like the top closers brought back big money either. Dumping saves isn't for everyone, but if the prices in your 5x5 league go past your comfort zone, it's worth thinking about buying five or six starting pitchers and three or four middle relievers for $1. Maybe you'll find Ryan Franklin and maybe you won't, but at least you'll avoid spending $5-7 on a useless set-up guy.

2009 A.L. Starting Pitchers: Part II

The most expensive starters in the American League last year delivered. How did everyone else do?

Next Ten Most Expensive (11-20) A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08
11	Joba Chamberlain	$7	$19	-12	$16	$20	$14
12	Daisuke Matsuzaka	-$2	$19	-20	$19	$17	$24
13	Kevin Slowey	$8	$18	-11	$16	$12	$18
14	Cliff Lee	$16	$18	-2	$23	$17	$37
15	Jon Lester	$30	$16	+13	$26	$21	$24
16	Scott Baker	$22	$16	+6	$11	$13	$21
17	Matt Garza	$20	$16	+5	$14	$16	$18
18	Ervin Santana	$6	$16	-11	$14	$13	$31
19	Gil Meche	$2	$16	-13	$11	$9	$19
20	Erik Bedard	$13	$15	-2	$16	$11	$9
	Average	$12	$17	-5	$17	$15	$22

Not so good. Without Lester in there, these guys lost $7 per pitcher.

It is telling that this bloc of pitchers earned almost as much per pitcher in 2008 as the 10 most expensive pitchers. The market expected most of these pitchers to slip, and more often than not they were right. Dice-K, Santana and Meche all fell hard, while Garza and Baker got slightly better but outperformed market expectations. Factoring in Lee's numbers in Philly, he put up a $27 season...$10 less than what he did in 2008, but much better than his price here.

This group of pitchers does what we typically expect them to do. They're less reliable than the top pitchers, and there's more variability from pitcher to pitcher. Even the predictions between the market, Patton, and Sports Weekly are scatter shot. Patton loved Lee and Lester and held back on Meche. Sports Weekly was conservative on Slowey, Meche, and Bedard. The market was a little bit out in front on Baker and Meche. In some cases, the market's reservations seemed a little odd in the moment, but in hindsight their relative conservatism made a lot of sense.

Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08
21	Justin Verlander	$37	$15	+22	$18	$18	$10
22	Jered Weaver	$25	$14	+11	$12	$12	$15
23	John Danks	$20	$14	+6	$15	$16	$22
24	David Price	$11	$12	-1	R1	$15	$2
25	Mark Buehrle	$19	$11	+7	$14	$10	$18
26	Gavin Floyd	$20	$11	+9	$12	$7	$19
27	Chien-Ming Wang	-$8	$11	-19	$19	$12	$8
28	Andy Sonnanstine	-$4	$10	-14	$11	$7	$14
29	Fausto Carmona	-$6	$9	-15	$14	$7	-$1
30	Justin Duchscherer		$8	-8	$4	$9	$23
	Average	$12	$12	-0	$12	$11	$13

This next group earned exactly what the 11-20 bracket did while costing $5 less per pitcher. The flip of that, though, is that these pitchers earned a relatively paltry $13 on average in 2008, including Duchscherer, who everyone knew was going to miss at least part of the season when he was purchased last spring. There are some big pay cuts here (Danks, Buehrle, and Floyd), but Buehrle and Floyd have a lot to do with the fear that their strikeout numbers would be low.

There's a pattern among the first 30 pitchers here. The market's relative fervor over hitters isn't matched on the pitching side and - as a result - both Patton and SW are out in front on a few of these names. Patton grabs Buehrle, Floyd, Sonnanstine, Wang, and Carmona - while tying SW on Verlander. SW also gets Danks, Price, and Duke. The only pitcher the market gets outright here is Weaver.

Through 30 pitchers, the market "gets" Felix, Kazmir, Burnett, Slowey, Baker, Santana, Meche and Weaver (not counting any ties). For the most part, the market seems to favor younger pitchers who either strike a lot of batters out or who have some kind of upside or perceived upside going forward. The problem the market has is that if it was liberal on hitters, it has to run out of money somewhere, and that starts to happen down here.

Next Ten (31-40) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08
31	Joe Saunders	$11	$8	+4	$12	$8	$22
32	Andy Pettitte	$16	$7	+10	$7	$6	$13
33	Jeremy Guthrie	$7	$6	0	$11	$11	$18
34	Armando Galarraga	-$0	$6	-6	$14	$5	$18
35	Jesse Litsch	-$1	$6	-7	$11	$6	$18
36	John Smoltz	-$3	$5	-9	$5	$10	$5
37	David Purcey	-$2	$5	-7	$2		$1
38	Nick Blackburn	$13	$4	+8	$4	$3	$11
39	Dana Eveland	-$7	$4	-11	$1		$7
40	Edwin Jackson	$23	$4	+19	$4		$7
	Average	$6	$6	0	$7	$5	$12

The only pitchers the market grabs outright here are Purcey and Eveland. Patton is on a spending spree now, grabbing Saunders, Galarraga and Litsch, while tying the market on Pettitte, Blackburn and Jackson and SW on Guthrie. That leaves only Smoltz for SW...who Patton and the market happily let them grab.

This group is sort of a microcosm of the 11-20 bracket of pitchers. They nearly earned the same as the 21-30 bracket, yet the market and the touts tread lightly here. Guthrie, Galarraga, and Litsch all take double-digit pay cuts that are vindicated by the results and then some for Galarraga and Litsch.

However, it's important to note that for the average Roto squad these are your third and fourth starting pitchers. Owners need to hold their noses and dive into the pool here, even though half of these pitchers wind up in the red. Jackson turned out to be a find here, but one incredible find out of 10 pitchers certainly doesn't scream success.

Next Ten (41-50) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08
41	Anthony Reyes	-$2	$4	-6	$7	$5	$4
42	Clay Buchholz	$8	$3	+5	R1	$1	-$5
43	Kelvim Escobar	$0	$3	-3	$5	$2
44	Brett Anderson	$18	$3	+15	$6
45	Kyle Davies	$3	$3	+1	$4		$6
46	Gio Gonzalez	$1	$3	-2	$1		-$3
47	Tim Wakefield	$8	$2	+5	$7	$3	$16
48	Trevor Cahill	$7	$2	+5	$1
49	Koji Uehara	$6	$2	+3	$6	$7
50	Brad Penny	$1	$2	-1	$7	$5	-$3
	Average	$5	$3	+2	$4	$2	$2

At a glance, the pitchers at the bottom look like the sort of grinders that you're hoping for when you spend $3 on a starting pitcher in the crapshoot. Getting $5 from your $3 investment is great, and it means that you avoided one of those bombs that have a way of making you look like an idiot, regardless of what you did with your 22 other roster spots. The problem is that these pitchers averaged a paltry 104 innings per starter. Some of that, of course, is the perpetually injured Escobar, but there are still a lot of pitchers here who didn't make it to the finish line.

When you go back and look at these pitchers in groups, this is the most predictable set of pitchers I've seen since I began doing these write-ups.

A.L. SP by Brackets 2009

Cost Bracket	$	Sal	+/-
1-10	$25	$23	+2
11-20	$12	$17	-5
21-30	$12	$12	-0
31-40	$6	$6	0
41-50	$5	$3	+2

If every team in your A.L. bought five starting pitchers, you averaged about $60 of value from those pitchers - more or less. Another way of looking at the chart above is that 40% of each team's value came from their ace.

That's a pretty reliable barometer if you're planning your strategy and wondering if spending money on a big ticket ace is the right way to go. Based on the last three years, 2008 looks like the aberration. In 2007, spending big money on pitchers brought back solid returns, compared to what you get back elsewhere. It looks like we returned to that paradigm once again in 2009.

2009 A.L. Starting Pitchers

The big change I made on the blog this winter was moving my retrospective pricing from 4x4 to 5x5. I was going to simply leave it at that, but it's worth explaining to some of my readers what impact this is having on the pricing.

Some of the pitchers in these charts are earning more in 5x5 than in 4x4. Alex Patton once called 5x5 "the great equalizer", suggesting that the values at the top get flattened. However, that's not quite right.

In 4x4, the average nine man Roto staff is worth $78; the average 12-team A.L. league churns out $936 worth of stats. In 5x5, 12-team A.L., that same team earns $1,020.

The short explanation is that since you're adding a quantitative pitching category that you're making pitchers somewhat more predictable and, thus, somewhat more valuable. That value is coming in strikeouts. Closers - as you will see - take a pretty big pay cut because while $84 of value is stolen from the hitters, most of the strikeout moolah gets taken from wins and saves. Starting pitchers make some, most, or even all of their money back with whiffs, but closers simply put up enough innings and whiffs pull this trick.

The long and short of it all is that the 10 pitchers in this chart below earned more in 2009 than you might have expected otherwise.

Ten Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08
1	CC Sabathia	$34	$31	+3	$32	$28	$40
2	Roy Halladay	$37	$28	+9	$33	$30	$40
3	Josh Beckett	$28	$23	+5	$23	$24	$20
4	James Shields	$18	$23	-5	$24	$18	$25
5	Zack Greinke	$44	$21	+23	$24	$15	$22
6	Felix Hernandez	$40	$21	+20	$17	$20	$17
7	Francisco Liriano	$1	$20	-19	$24	$22	$6
8	John Lackey	$18	$20	-1	$18	$21	$18
9	Scott Kazmir	$9	$20	-11	$18	$16	$20
10	A.J. Burnett	$19	$19	0	$16	$12	$23
	Average	$25	$23	+2	$23	$21	$23

They blew the same group from 2008 away, earning a whopping $7 more per pitcher than their 2008 counterparts.

No, that's not quite correct. Last year's charts were using 4x4 values. Inserting 5x5 values instead, the 10 most expensive pitchers earned $20 per pitcher, not $18.

Nevertheless, this was much better place to put your money in 2009 than it was in 2008. There were six pitchers who cracked $30 in earnings in 2009, and four of the six made this list. That's fairly predictable. There were really only two big busts (Kazmir and Liriano). While you obviously would rather have had Greinke or Felix than Lackey or Burnett, breaking even on a $19 or $20 pitcher in Roto isn't a bad deal at all.

After squeezing the top hitters, Patton takes a different approach here and goes after the top pitchers with gusto. In a three-way battle with the market and Sports Weekly, he gets Sabathia, Halladay, Shields, Greinke and Liriano. The market gets Felix, Kazmir, and Burnett, while SW takes home Beckett and Lackey.

While the top pitchers were fairly predictable, the 10 most expensive pitchers only had five pitchers make the next list.

Top Ten A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08
1	Zack Greinke	$44	$21	+23	$24	$15	$22
2	Felix Hernandez	$40	$21	+20	$17	$20	$17
3	Roy Halladay	$37	$28	+9	$33	$30	$40
4	Justin Verlander	$37	$15	+22	$18	$18	$10
5	CC Sabathia	$34	$31	+3	$32	$28	$40
6	Jon Lester	$30	$16	+13	$26	$21	$24
7	Josh Beckett	$28	$23	+5	$23	$24	$20
8	Jered Weaver	$25	$14	+11	$12	$12	$15
9	Edwin Jackson	$23	$4	+19	$4		$7
10	Scott Baker	$22	$16	+6	$11	$13	$21
	Average	$32	$19	+13	$20	$18	$22

Verlander, Lester, Weaver, Jackson and Baker join this group.

Just like in the N.L., though, this isn't a very surprising group at all. Jackson is the big surprise, but it cost at least $14 to take a ride with any of these other pitchers.

Obviously, the return here is tremendous. But $19 isn't a cheap price for what's typically an unpredictable commodity.

Top 10 A.L. Starting Pitchers 2008
(readjusted for 5x5 in 2008)

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'07 (4x4)
1	Roy Halladay	$40	$21	+19	$29	$22	$23
2	Cliff Lee	$37	$1	+36	$3		-$7
3	Ervin Santana	$31	$6	+25	$11	$2	-$9
4	Mike Mussina	$26	$4	+22	$6	$3	$1
5	James Shields	$25	$21	+4	$17	$13	$24
6	Daisuke Matsuzaka	$24	$23	0	$21	$18	$13
7	Jon Lester	$24	$7	+17	$9	$5	$1
8	Justin Duchscherer	$23	$6	+18	$3	$1	$1
9	A.J. Burnett	$23	$16	+7	$17	$16	$18
10	Zack Greinke	$22	$11	+11	$11	$7	$11
	Average	$28	$12	+16	$13	$9	$8

This is last year's Top 10 with 5x5 values instead of 4x4. The list changes from what I had posted last year. Here, you can see the impact of 5x5 on high quality, low strikeout pitchers. Mussina lost $2 in 5x5. Duchscherer lost $5 in the 5x5 format and Joe Saunders disappears from the Top 10 entirely.

But even with the adjusted Top 10, there are a lot of surprises here. Half the pitchers in 2008 cost $7 or less; the point I made about buying your staff on the cheap in '08 still applied. You didn't even need every one of these pitchers; you could have got lucky/struck gold with Lester and Duchscherer and turned a tidy profit.

You would have had a harder time doing that in 2009. Spending $45 on Verlander, Lester, and Weaver obviously would have bought you a golden ticket. However, there were a lot of pitchers in the $13-17 range who didn't pan out. In my next post, I'll look at these pitchers and see how they did compared to the most expensive ones.