Kelly Johnson

Anonymous asks:

Kelly Johnson hit the waiver wire in my deep, 12-team, NL-only. Should I acquire him? Is there a second-half turnaround in store for him?

The first part of the question is easy. Unless you have a league with very limited reserve lists, you should jump all over Johnson if he's available in your league.

By my reckoning, Johnson earned $19 in 4x4 last year. That put him fifth among National League second basemen in 2008. It's nearly impossible to trade for a middle infielder who produces nearly $20 worth of stats; you have nothing to lose by taking the gamble except your FAAB.

If Johnson fails and merely stays at the level he's at, he'll still hit some HR, drive in some runs, and steal some bases. If you can take the average hit, then you're still going to get a productive player - which is more than you can say for any of the dreck that's probably sitting in your free agent pool.

Will Johnson turn it around? That's a tougher question.

There's certainly something to Toz's theory that Johnson should swing and miss more often. His contact rate of 84.2% is almost four percent higher than Johnson's career norm. The odd thing is that most of Johnson's additional swings have come at pitches in the zone and not outside of it. Whatever has happened to Johnson this year, it's not that he suddenly forgot the strike zone and started swinging at bad pitches.

I did notice that his G/F ratio skewed toward flyballs this year. Johnson's 0.89 G/F lends itself to the idea that he's more of a flyball hitter than he's ever been before. One would expect that Johnson might be hitting a few more balls out of the park, but his HR/FB% of 6.2% is very low. Again, there might be something to the idea that Johnson has developed a better batting eye but the end result is that he's swinging at higher quality strikes.

All this being said, Johnson's BABIP is so low that he almost has to bounce back. That doesn't mean he will - better players than Johnson have simply had entire years where the bounces don't fall, the close plays don't go your way, and you suddenly start making all kinds of unorthodox outs. But even with the lower LD%, Johnson should be able to increase that BABIP and - as a result - increase his production, assuming he gets another chance.

And The Player To be Named is...

Anonymous wonders:

Who do you think the PTBNL is in the (Scott) Hairston trade? Apparently, the Padres can pick between one of two pitchers.

I don't know for sure, but speculation at Fangraphs and Athletics Nation has surrounded Sean Gallagher and Dana Eveland. MLB Trade Rumors suggests that one of the potential PTBNLs does have major league experience, making Gallagher or Eveland seem like possible choices.

I'd say that Gallagher is probably the better choice for the Padres, but what Rotoworld called a "minor knee injury" on June 7 has kept Gallagher out of action for over a month now. That means that if it is Gallagher, you might not see much impact from him in 2009 and can all but cross him off of your FAAB wish list. If you're thinking long-term, though, he is still only a relative pup at the age of 23 and could definitely translate his minor league successes to the majors at some point.

I'm a little less confident in Eveland. Some of that might simply be from the visceral experience of watching him tank against the Red Sox tonight. He started off like a house afire in 2008, but seemed to lose command of his pitches as the season went along and he hasn't been the same since. Tonight was the same story: Eveland's best stuff wasn't blowing anyone away so he started throwing slop outside the zone. That led to walks, which led to slop inside the zone, which led to Red Sox hits, more slop outside the zone and an early exit.

At 25, Eveland isn't as young as Gallagher, but he still is relatively young. That being said, I think the Padres (assuming they are choosing between these two) would probably go for Gallagher over Eveland.

Of course, it wouldn't be a discussion about any future Padres pitcher without mentioning the obvious: Petco is a pitchers heaven. Even on that score, though, Gallagher benefits more than Eveland, as Gallagher is a flyball pitcher while Eveland at his best is a groundball machine.

The other possibility is that the PTBNL is someone else. We shall see. I can't remember the last time a PTBNL generated such interest.

N.L. FAAB Log: July 6, 2009

Garrett Jones $12. Other bids $12, $5.
Jones is one of those minor league 1B types who hit for not quite enough power, not quite enough batting average, and strike out just a little too much to ever get an opportunity. However, it looks like the Pirates are committed to giving Jones a look in the outfield over some of the sad sack options they've been shoving out there all year long. He's too old to be considered a prospect, and despite the .307 BA in AAA this year he projects out more as a .230-.250 hitter in the bigs, but the combined power/PT makes him worth a solid bid this week...he's already got two HR since his promotion.

Ryan Sadowski $4.
He obviously isn't going to throw up a shutout every time out, but unlike Rotoworld I don't think that Sadowski is simply an accident waiting to happen. While his 4.15 G/F ratio in his first two MLB starts is obviously unsustainable, Sadowski did have a decent G/F ratio in the minors this year and could keep his ERA OK if he keeps the ball on the ground. I'm not saying that he's going to be an awesome SP, but he could be league average or slightly below and with the Giants playing well Sadowski could stick and win a few starts. Tread with caution, but don't be afraid to tread, in other words.

Joe Thurston $3.
I speculated last week that Thurston would get buried on the bench with the Cardinals acquisition of Mark DeRosa, but with DeRosa's wrist injury lingering (and possibly being more serious than initially believed), Thurston has gotten most of the starts at 3B this week. He's still having a bad year and is only an option right now if he's playing every day.

Will Venable $2.
Venable's swing-for-the-fences approach worked well at AAA Portland this year but not so much for the Padres, where he has an unacceptable 14 whiffs in 37 AB with next to nothing to show for it. With Scott Hairston getting shipped out of San Diego tonight, Venable has an opportunity to pick up some AB, but Kyle Blanks is probably a better bet to capitalize on the opportunity. I'd stay away from Venable until he starts hitting.

Josh Banks $1.
After a solid start against the Astros earlier in the week, Banks got pounded by the Dodgers today, allowing 3 HR in 4 1/3 IP while failing to strike out a batter. Banks gets by with an assortment of junk (including the odd knuckler). He's an entertaining pitcher to watch if you don't own him, but owning him probably requires a bottle of antacid and smelling salts. I'd avoid even in match-ups.

Bobby Parnell $1.
I wrote about Parnell earlier this week as part of a piece on N.L. middle relievers.

Rodrigo Lopez $1.
Lopez turned in a solid outing as a fill-in starter against the Mets this weekend, but that hasn't seemed like much of a task lately with half of their line-up out with injuries. The 33-year-old hasn't had a decent season since he pitched for the Orioles in 2004 and despite solid minor league numbers seems like a poor bet going forward. He could also be a placeholder for Carlos Carrasco, so don't make a big investment even if you do decide to invest.

Brett Carroll $1.
With the Marlins within striking distance of first place, a fire sale looks unlikely, so Carroll's probably going to be a back-up the rest of the way. That makes him a borderline player to own even in very deep leagues, as he doesn't offer quite enough power even as a 5th Roto OF.

Mike Hampton $1.
Hampton came off the DL this past week and was lucky enough to ease in with a start at San Diego. It was a solid start, but Hampton's a poor bet for success and a potential WHIP killer for your team. If you are going to pick him up, this is probably the week to own him: he's facing the Pirates and Nationals in a two-start week.

Robinzon Diaz $1.
With Ryan Doumit starting a rehab assignment on Friday, the clock is ticking for Diaz and any Roto relevance he might have. Since my last write-up on Diaz, he's gone 10-for-33 with 4 RBI, no HR, and no SB. The .303 BA has been fine, but Diaz has done exactly what I would have expected: provide next to no value, even at catcher. With Doumit coming back soon, feel free to drop Diaz if you haven't already done so.

A.L. FAAB Log: July 6, 2009

Scott Hairston $33. Other bid $4.
The curse of the late Sunday night trade...not enough owners were logged in at this late hour to see the Hairston trade, I'm guessing. The winning bid is mine. I suppose I could have bid less in the hopes of catching most of my league asleep. However, the Rototimes Player Rater has Hairston ranked 21st among 4x4 National League hitters and he has an outside chance at a 20/20 season. There is the possibility that a better player won't cross over into the American League this year. Hairston should start for the A's right away (I concur with Rotoworld and believe that Travis Buck gets sent down) and should be bid on aggressively.

Eric Hinske $12.
Even if Hinske can manage 3-4 starts a week for the Yankees, he could be valuable due to his power (if you can take a possible BA hit). The problem is that it's hard to see where Hinske's going to fit in on a team that's already loaded up in the OF and at both corners. Barring an injury, Hinske's not going to play more than 1-2 times a week, and that probably only makes him worth acquiring if you're truly desperate. There are better options out there even in deep leagues right now, such as...

Ryan Langerhans $5. Other bids $2, $1, $1.
It looks like the Mariners are going to use Langerhans in a pretty straight platoon with Wladimir Balentien. Since Langerhans is on the good side of the platoon, that makes him a solid short-term pick-up. His career numbers in the majors are quite uninspiring, but Langerhans could pop 10-15 HR over the course of a full season in a full-time role, so pick him up if you have a glaring need for power and have the slot.

Garret Olson $3.
Olson's numbers have been OK so far, and a solid start this weekend against Boston probably raised some eyebrows. The downside is that his K/IP has been underwhelming for a guy who throws as hard as Olson can and his HR/9 has been atrocious. His raw stuff is good enough that he could continue to put up OK numbers if he hangs on to the job, but with Erik Bedard possibly coming back this week, Olson might wind up in the pen again. Long term, I think his future might be as a LOOGY.

Chris Woodward $2. Other bid $1.
I'm not sure what the MLE of a 299 BA and a 766 OPS at AAA Tacoma is, but I'm sure it's nothing to write home about. At the moment, it appears that Woodward is the starting 3B for the Mariners, but one would hope that they're working the phones looking for a better option, or that Chris Shelton is playing 3B in AAA to see if his defense would hold up at the major league level. Woodward is suitable as a major league utility player, but his value in Roto is virtually non-existent, even if he's starting.

Jim Johnson $2.
Johnson had a shaky outing this week, but he's been solid all year for the Orioles and his fantasy owners, and could wind up closing if the O's do wind up trading George Sherrill.

David Dellucci $1.
Russ Adams wasn't cutting it for the Jays, so it's Dellucci's turn to see if he can be an effective de facto platoon mate with Kevin Millar. Like Langerhans, Dellucci is on the good side of a platoon at the moment, so could be worth a small bid if you have a dead spot in the OF. His upside is a little more power potential than Langerhans, but Dellucci hasn't hit at all this year and is at the age where players sometimes just fall off the map entirely.

Fu-Te Ni $1.
Ni is a 26-year-old Taiwanese pitcher that the Tigers signed to a minor-league deal in the offseason. I don't know much about him, but scouting reports say that he's a finesse pitcher. His minor league splits this year make him look like a lefty specialist, and since Bobby Seay already does that job well for the Tigers, I don't know how long Ni will be up or what kind of role he'll carve out in the long-term.

Jayson Nix. Claimed by 12th and 6th place teams.
Nix should probably be starting at 2B over Chris Getz, but he's mostly served as a utilityman/jack-of-all-trades player for the White Sox. He's provided solid power and speed off of the bench, and since he's MI eligible in most leagues he should be owned as a third MI in deeper leagues. Don't be fooled by his high number of AB this week. Alex Ramirez was fighting a finger injury and is healthy again. Nix should go back to starting 1-2 times a week assuming everyone else is healthy.

Aaron Poreda. Claimed by 10th, 5th, and 2nd place teams.
This is a suitable waiver claim for a team at or near the bottom of the standings. Poreda's been buried in the Sox bullpen and has barely pitched since his call-up. He belongs back in the minors, but is a good guy to pick-up and stash if you're playing for next year.

DeWayne Wise. Claimed by 9th and 6th place teams.
Wise looked like a solid option coming out of spring training, but it looks like Scott Podsednik has Pipped Wise out of a job. With Carlos Quentin starting a rehab assignment this past weekend, the ChiSox OF is going to get even more crowded, squeezing Wise out of further AB. He's a longshot to contribute at the moment.

N.L. FAAB Supplemental: Drew Sutton

Sutton generated a fair amount of interest after the Astros swapped him straight up for Jeff Keppinger back in April. Sutton has always been a borderline prospect; he's interesting to major league teams because of his versatility around the infield as well as his moderate power potential. However, his 2008 campaign saw his first OPS over 800 since his days in the Sally League back in 2005, and Sutton was a 25-year-old repeating at AA. No bid for now, but Sutton bears watching given the Reds thin infield.

Buy Low/Sell High: Middle Relievers (N.L.)

I didn't think my series on middle relievers would generate such interest, but since most fantasy web sites say or imply that they're nearly worthless, I shouldn't be surprised.

Anonymous asks:

Since MRs tend to be so uneven from the first to the second half, who are some sell-high, buy-low candidates? I'm in an NL-only.

Provided below is what is an admittedly abbreviated list. Since a vast majority of free agents in deep leagues are middle relievers, one person's trash is another's treasure, so keep in mind that these are my recommendations; you might have your own opinions based on how you view these pitchers.

The other caveat is that I'm not recommending any of these pitchers based on their chances of getting wins or saves. I'm simply looking at ERA, WHIP and (to a lesser degree) strikeouts for you 5x5 owners.

Buy
Jared Burton 33 2/3 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 4.81 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 25 K
Because of the 4.54 BB/9, Burton's a borderline buy low guy. However, after a poor April and May, he turned it around in June, posting a 2.19 ERA with a 1.3 WHIP. The K rate is solid, and Burton's kept the ball in the yard this year (1 HR allowed). His .346 BABIP tells me that he's been somewhat unlucky.

Juan Gutierrez 38 2/3 IP, 1 W, 1 SV, 4.66 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 42 K
Gutierrez's line isn't good, but most of that line comes due to a three game stretch last month where he was absolutely stinky (2 1/3 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 9 ER). Take that awful streak out and Gutierrez has been pretty dominant most of the year. He might not save any games this year, but he should provide value - particularly in 5x5 K leagues. The one thing to watch out for is that he's a flyball pitcher whose HR/FB % is abnormally low.

Joel Hanrahan 34 2/3 IP, 0 w, 5 SV, 7.79 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, 38 K
If you don't want to take this recommendation, I don't blame you. However, Hanrahan's got over a K per inning, his .460 BABIP has nowhere to go but down, and he's removed from the constant pressure cooker of a situation that Manny Acta had created in Washington with his "Who's Closing for Me Now?" game show. I don't expect Hanrahan to be a world beater, but if he wound up throwing up a 4.00 ERA with a 1.3 WHIP and maintaining a whiff an inning I wouldn't be surprised.

Chan Ho Park 55 1/3 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 5.86 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 46 K
Having paid $21 for Park prior to his ill-fated 2002 campaign with Texas, I never thought he'd be useful for anything outside of a scary campfire story to my kids, who I presume will someday be Rotisserie addicts like me. But after getting boxed around as a starter, Park has quietly put up some solid numbers out of the pen for the Phillies, with a 3.68 ERA and a .264 BAA as a reliever. His higher K/IP numbers make me think that Park allows himself some extra oomph when he knows he's only going to be in there for a inning or two, making him tougher to hit. I wouldn't want to count on him, but he's a fine addition as your last active pitcher.

Bobby Parnell 30 1/3 IP, 2 w, 0 SV, 5.04 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 25 K
Parnell's a tough guy to recommend because - unlike most of the pitchers on this list - his numbers are headed in the wrong direction. A 13.50 ERA and a 3 WHIP in June scream "Stay Away!" However, it's hard to overlook Parnell's decent K/9 and HR/9 ratios, and looking at his 398 BABIP makes me think that he's got nowhere to go but up. Citi Field is also a favorable venue for Parnell. This is the riskiest buy recommendation in this entire group, but Parnell is definitely a candidate to improve.

Sell/Don't Buy
Kyle McClellan 37 IP, 2 w, 1 SV, 2.92 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 28 K
An overriding theme with most of these sell pitchers isn't that they're bad, just that they're not as good as their numbers to date. McClellan stuff is OK, but unless he's throwing up a G/F of 2.0 or better (he isn't), his peripherals simply don't support an ERA under three.

Evan Meek 29 2/3 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 2.73 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 18 K
Meek's success comes from getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground, but more walks than whiffs and an extremely favorable BABIP of 206 make for an awful combination. I doubt most would consider picking him up for the BB/IP ratio alone, but if you are, don't.

Justin Miller 33 1/3 IP, 1 w, 0 SV, 2.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 20 K
Of the top performing middle relievers to date, regular reader Brett thinks that Nick Masset is the guy who is due for a Post All-Star fall, but my money's on this guy. His 93% strand rate is absurdly good while his HR/9 is pedestrian, making me think that the long flies Miller gives up in the second half could be more costly than the ones he's given up thus far. Miller does have better career K rates, so if he does start generating more punch outs, the correction might not be as severe.

Renyel Pinto 28 2/3 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 26 K
Pinto is a case where the gaudy K/IP numbers and the talk of him as a sleeper closer candidate make him seem more valuable than he actually is. The walk rate is too high and when you combine this with his severe G/F rate, Pinto seems lucky to have served up only two dingers this year. That ERA is going to catch up with that WHIP in the second half.

David Weathers 27 1/3 IP, 0 W, 1 SV, 2.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 17 K
Weathers is a pitcher who I don't expect to collapse but who I don't expect to post numbers this strong going forward. His 221 BABIP compares extremely favorably to his 310 career rate and his K/9 don't really support the dominance that Weathers has exhibited thus far.

Diving Deep Into the Middle (A.L.)

Continuing with what has now become a four-part series on middle relievers, here's a look at the best middle relievers in the American League to date in 4x4 Rotisserie League formats:

Most Valuable MR to Date: American League

#	Player	4x4 $	5x5 $	Sal	Owned?	How?
1	Ramon Ramirez	$22	$17	$1	Y	FA 4/6
2	Jason Frasor	$21	$15		Y	FA 4/13
3	Alfredo Aceves	$21	$16	$1	Y	FA 5/18
4	Michael Wuertz	$21	$17		Y	FA 5/18
5	Matt Guerrier	$21	$13		Y	FA 4/27
6	Darren O'Day	$18	$13		Y	FA 5/25
7	Lance Cormier	$15	$11		N	FA 6/1
8	Matt Thornton	$15	$12	$3	Y	$1
9	Jim Johnson	$15	$10		N	FA 6/1
10	Miguel Batista	$14	$10	$2	N	FA 4/27
	Average	$18	$13	$1

It's a somewhat different vibe in the A.L. than in the N.L. Perhaps it is because the player pool is thinner, maybe it's because the fifth starters in the American League are that bad, or maybe it's because A.L. starters don't get to face their counterparts holding a bat 2-3 times a game. Whatever the reason, strong middle relievers definitely aren't allowed to simply sit in the free agent pool in the A.L. They get picked up off the FAAB wires and thrown in there.

There's also a little more play amongst the expert leagues for these guys. Batista was mostly part of the wacky Seattle guessing game prior to Brandon Morrow being anointed the closer, but the rest of these guys in the hopes that they'd contribute in the non-save categories. Thornton, Aceves, and Ramirez aren't the kind of plays an owner makes thinking that Bobby Jenks, Mariano Rivera, or Jon Papelbon are going to fall down on their asses and be unable to continue.

Based on past performance, this is a fairly sensible conclusion to derive. Let's look at two pitchers from last year: Thornton and Minnesota starter Glen Perkins.

Player	IP	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Glen Perkins '08	151	12	0	74	4.41	1.470
Matt Thornton '08	67 1/3	5	1	77	2.67	0.995

I'd be willing to guess that more fantasy baseball sites recommended Perkins last year as a viable option over Thornton based on his wins and his so-so ERA. Yet Thornton provided just about the same value in strikeouts while blowing Perkins away in ERA and WHIP. It's even more dramatic when reflected in dollar values.

Player	IP	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Glen Perkins '08	151	$6.35	$0.00	$3.41	-$1.01	-$2.70
Matt Thornton '08	67 1/3	$2.59	$0.28	$3.55	$2.61	$3.67

Perkins blew away Thornton in wins last year, but Thornton more than made up for it in ERA/WHIP. The final tally in dollars was Thornton $13 and Perkins $6...and Perkins would have had to have whiffed 219 batters to beat Thornton in 2008!

And that's why teams eventually start gravitating toward these guys once the season starts. If a pitcher is whiffing a batter an inning, that's a good benchmark, whether he's starting or relieving. In 5x5 in particular, these pitchers are going to have serious value, but even in 4x4, good things will happen for these pitchers...assuming that their control is even passable.

Diving Deep Into the Middle (N.L.)

After reading my scintillating post on middle relievers yesterday, T.J. wanted to know:

Why no Dan Meyer?

The answer is because I was only looking at pitchers who are currently free agents in the 4x4 N.L.-only league I track for my FAAB bids. Since T.J. is (understandably) curious, here is the full list year-to-date.

Most Valuable MR to Date: National League

#	Player	4x4 $	5x5 $	Sal	Owned?	How?
1	Ramon Troncoso	$22	$15		Y	FA 5/18
2	Mark DiFelice	$21	$15		Y	FA 5/4
3	Nick Masset	$21	$15		N
4	Chris Sampson	$21	$13		Y	FA 5/18
5	Dan Meyer	$21	$13		Y	FA 5/18
6	Ronald Belisario	$18	$14		N	FA 5/25
7	Angel Guzman	$15	$11		Y	FA 5/25
8	Mitch Stetter	$15	$11		N
9	Ryan Madson	$15	$11	2	Y	$5F
10	Pedro Feliciano	$14	$11		N	FA 6/22
	Average	$18	$13	0

The dollar values for 4x4 and 5x5 are prorated assuming that all 10 of these pitchers continued on the exact same pace for the rest of the year. The average salary is from the Sportsline, LABR, and Tout Wars expert auctions. The "owned" column tracks whether or not these pitchers are owned in the N.L. league I track for FAAB bids every week, and the last column tells us the salary if they were bought at auction or the date of purchase if they were FAABed.

You'll notice right away that Belisario and Feliciano both have FAAB purchase dates even though they're unowned. That's because they were bought and then tossed back into the pool - Feliciano apparently rather quickly.

And once again you'll notice that the impact of these pitchers in 5x5, though not as significant as it is in 4x4, is still significant. Not all 10 of these pitchers will finish the year in double digits earnings in 5x5, but probably at least 4-5 will.

This isn't small potatoes. Last year in 5x5, only 65 pitchers earned $10 or more. That number expands slightly in 4x4, with 71 pitchers cracking double digits, but it's still not a lot.

In terms of deep leagues, this means that if you had a retrospective auction in N.L. 5x5 leagues last year and everyone took an equal amount of $10+ pitchers, each team would get five of them.

We've had it beaten into our heads for so long by the traditional Rotisserie community that middle relievers are worthless that even the most hard core of Rotisserie analysts don't realize how valuable middle relievers are. One of these guys could be my fifth best pitcher in 5x5, which means that there's a good chance I'm carrying at least two starters who aren't as good as that middle man.